The Problem
The 2022 midterm election is shaping up to be one of the
most critical elections in our history given the multiple crises the US and the
world face. Note that many commentators said that of the 2016 and 2020 elections.
How can each one be more critical than the one before it? Easy. What has
happened is that after each of these earlier elections little was done to resolve
the crises we face, and often new layers were added to our problems. We are “waist
deep in the big muddy” and we are told that “all we need is a little
determination” and to “just push on”. (Pete Seeger)
The November election comes at a time when the country is
more ideologically divided than it has been since 1860 and in the midst of
several crises, any one or combination of which could lead to disastrous
consequences and even the end of society as we know it.
We have a proxy war being fought between the two largest
nuclear powers that is slowly, inexorably escalating. That proxy war is part of
a broader political and economic struggle between the dominant imperial power
(the US’s Empire of Liberty and its NATO partners) and the rising economic
power of China, with the support of its junior partner, Russia. The Chinese are
responsible for the economic challenge, the Russian, with their nuclear capabilities,
the threat of military muscle. Is it coincidental that, at the same time as the
US is sending massive amounts of military equipment to Ukraine, it is conducting
naval maneuvers of unpresented scope in the Pacific and challenging China? And
you thought that Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was the problem.
Besides the threat of nuclear war, the proxy war in
Ukraine is threatening the world’s food supply, particularly that of many
Global South nations, which are already dealing with various effects of climate
change. Wide spread famines in these countries will result in political
destabilization; Sri Lanka is undoubtedly the first of many such destabilizations.
(As I write we are already hearing about others.)
Global climate warming is threatening to reach a tipping
point, yet the US is failing to meet even its modest goals and instead is
pouring hundreds of billions into the war machine, one of the key sources driving
the climate crisis, with its massive production of greenhouse gases.
I could go on, but I imagine my readers are familiar with
much of what is happening. In this context, if the Democratic Party loses
control of Congress, we will face 2 years in which the national government will
be totally dysfunctional, that is, even more dysfunctional than it is right
now. Manchin and Sinema will be yesterday’s news. The Republican party, which
is fundamentally opposed to government period, will be able to prevent
any advances designed to meet the challenges we face. And, to quote an old
Chinese saying, “Where the broom doesn’t sweep, the dirt won’t go away by itself.”
Will the Democrats lose in November?
It’s no surprise that Democrats are up against it this
fall, both in terms of history and economic conditions. The president’s party
generally loses ground in midterm elections, which in this case will mean
losing both the House and the Senate. Inflation is at a 40-year high, crime is
up. And the centerpiece of President Biden’s domestic agenda has been
torpedoed by united Republican obstruction — and a West Virginia Democrat,
although at this point it appears that a very watered-down version may
pass before the November election (but not in time to have any real effect,
other than to give the Democrats a talking point – see, “we are trying”).
But a critical factor was revealed in a recent New York
Times-Siena College poll: Though they enjoy a huge 20-point advantage over
Republicans among white college-educated voters, the Democrats have a working-class
problem, and it is not just a white working-class problem (Note that I am using
that term, white-working class, because it is in common usage, but in reality,
it is not accurate. The working class is probably the most integrated aspect of
American society.) The GOP leads the Dems by a 12% margin among ALL non-college
educated voters. Despite its racist and anti-immigrant platforms, the GOP is in
the process of consolidating a multiracial working-class base, as is evidenced
by the defection from the Democratic Party of a significant portion of Hispanic
and even Black voters in 2020 and 2021. This does not take into account
traditional Democratic voters, particularly young people, who stay home rather
than vote for what they see as the lesser of two evils. A bit harsh, but in my
experience, an accurate assessment.
Who or what is to blame? The party establishment trains
its guns on the left. The gerontocracy that runs the Democratic Party (says
someone who will be 80 years old in less than a month), the centrist thinktanks,
and the big money donors all agree that, as Ruy Teixeira argues, problem is
that the left has poisoned the “party brand”. “Wokeness,” according to James Carville,
“is a problem and we all know it” or, as a local party official here in Wilmington
put it, the problem is those damn “Bernie bros”. Their solution to overcoming
the ominous clouds of defeat in November is to focus on campaigning for more
gun control and against the assault on abortion and Donald Trump’s “big lie”
about a stolen election as the way to save Democrats this fall.
Now it is true that the Republican party seems to be
doing its best to hand the election back to the Democrats, and I’m certainly
not advocating looking this gift horse in the mouth. But by limiting their
appeals to the social issues that garner support from suburban whites and their
big corporate donors, the Party will continue to bleed. Add to that the attacks
on the left, which alienate many younger voters (and even old farts like me),
the Party is doing a poor job of incorporating into its ranks the 4 million
young people who turn 18 each year. Democrats ought to be concerned that the
activists of their base — the young, African Americans, climate activists,
Hispanics — are demoralized by what the Party is doing and not doing.
It's not that the party has moved to the right, it’s that
the voting age population has moved to the left, in part because of the looming
crises, in part because of the work of the progressives and in part because of
the influx of young voters. Just check out the support for issues the left is
advocating – universal healthcare, taxing the rich, the Green New Deal, cancelling
student debt, establishing tuition free college and so on.
Add to that the continuing assault on working Americans
standard of living, particularly in rural areas and in the Rust Belt states of
the Midwest, which has alienated the working class (and not just white workers)
and provided a fertile ground for the extreme right to organize. It doesn’t
help when centrist Dems (yes Hillary, I’m talking about you, but also the rest
of the crowd) refer to Trump supporters as “deplorable” and (yes, Barack, you
too) when you talk about those who “cling to guns and religion”. It’s little
wonder that many working-class Americans view the Democratic Party as a party
of the economic and social elites – because in many respects that’s what it’s
become.
What needs to happen between now and November?
·
The Democrats, starting with the top leadership,
need to STOP trashing the left and STOP supporting DINOs against progressive
challengers (although, since the primary season is about over, there won’t be
much opportunity to do the latter).
·
Joe Biden needs to mount the bully pulpit and
demand that Congress act on his agenda right away. I’m sure it won’t have any
immediate effect, but it will play well on TV and the internet and change his
image. No more milk-toast Joe.
·
He needs to pressure the various agencies of the
government (and even those like the Fed, that are not directly under his
control) to support his agenda or do everything in his power to remove the people
who are creating roadblocks.
·
Biden needs to do EVERYTHING that he can to
implement the campaign promises he and the Dems ran on in 2020 that don’t
require the do-nothing Congress to act. For starters he could declare a climate
emergency and cancel student debt.
·
The Democratic Party needs to put forth and run
on bold proposals that address working class issues – economic issues like the
child tax credit, invigorating the labor laws and their enforcement, raising
the minimum wage to at least $15 an hour, rural development – I could go on,
but I think you should have gotten my point by now.
·
And Biden and the corporate Dems need to STOP
feeding the Pentagon and its military-industrial complex, resources that Americans
and others around the world need to survive the crises we are all facing. The
bloated war machine does not make us safer; the truth is that it makes us less
safe.
Will this be enough to reverse the Party’s declining
support among the working class. No, but it might be enough to guarantee the
Democrats 2 more years in power. After that, it will take a lot more to begin
remaking the Democratic Party as the party of the working class, For now, it
may be all we can hope for.