Trump a winner?

I like the fact that Trump is outing the nativist, racist and destructive currents in Republican pandering to its “base.” It’s clear though that his appeal goes beyond undereducated, under employed, bitter white men. He appeals to many others because, unlike typical politicians, he “tells it like it is.” Polls show that a good part of his support comes from people who say they don’t agree with all that he says but, at least, he says what is on his mind without a lot of politically correct phraseology.



I think Bernie gets a lot of support for similar reasons. He speaks “truth to power” and says things that other politicians don’t. Like Trump, a significant percentage of poll respondents like that he is not just another typical politician even if they don’t necessarily buy his entire policies.



In my mind, all of this is a reaction to the broken politics of the national government. Congress has historically low approval ratings. Obama is better but still does not have a majority. Nothing gets done until the last minute and then only after what is seen as weak kneed compromises (as viewed from either the left or right.) The public is turned off by constant partisan bickering and looking for something different.



In many ways, I would love a Trump-Sanders race. It would almost certainly assure a Sanders win. That said it would be one of the ugliest races ever.  It would boil down to a racist reactionary (as defined by the left) vs looney socialist do-gooder (as defined by the right.) It would leave a weakened winner with little ability to govern. Unfortunately, the constituencies of both candidates are too willing to believe a president can make sweeping changes by himself. A nasty presidential race would, in my opinion, deepen divisions in Congress even further.  It seems likely that the Democrats will regain the Senate, but the Republicans will almost certainly retain the House. It will continue to be difficult for anyone winning the presidency to make changes and impossible if the partisan divide widens even further.



Can Trump win the nomination? For a lot of technical reasons (the Republicans allow winner take all primaries and some big states have them) a continuation of a large Republican field could open the door for a Trump win without achieving a majority in any state. I think the field will begin to narrow very soon and that will be the time to recalibrate Trump’s chances.