Monday, December 26, 2016

The 2016 Election – Part 3 - Where do we go from here – NOT!


We shouldn’t be surprised that the elite liberal establishment (we definitely need a good acronym for it – EEL would work if we just shifted the words around) has come out with their analysis of what happened and why. In the last couple of days, I have been made aware of two examples that merit response because they represent a misreading of the historical context of this election and therefore fail to provide guidance to how progressives can move forward.

The first, and most pernicious, is an article by Paul Krugman, Useful Idiots Galore, that appeared in the NYT. Krugman argues that a swing of 1% in the election sent Sec. Clinton down to defeat. That swing, he states was due to “dirty tricks” (my name, not his), namely the actions of Russia and James Comey in the days leading up to Nov. 8th which produced the shift and threw the election to Trump. And he may well be right, but …

The conclusion implied from this analysis is dead wrong. It proceeds from the failure to locate this election in the historical context of American politics for the last 40 years. The question he doesn’t address is why was this election so close to begin with. And he fails to even mention the fact that this election marks the continuation of a trend that has seen the Democratic Party become a permanent minority party in most parts of the US. Congress is now solidly in the hands of the Republicans. The Senate races in 2 years will be a disaster for Democrats as they must defend a large majority of the seats that will be up for election, and the House – well’ we can forget about that since only about 10% of the seats are even contestable. Most state governments are controlled by Republicans. Fewer and fewer young people are registering as Democrats. And so on.

What has been the anomaly is that, prior to 2016, Democrats have won 5 of the last 6 Presidential elections (counting Gore’s win in 2000). Now, even that critical office has fallen to the most reactionary forces. Arguing that this election was stolen keeps us from analyzing the fundamental problems of the Democratic Party that led to this loss. To quote Thomas Frank, “What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?”

I would posit that Krugman doesn’t know because he is part of the problem. Democrats need to stop moaning about what the Repugs (a wonderful bastardization of their party’s name that my wife has been using for a while) are doing and own up to what they did wrong. We don’t need to double down on what we have always done, nor do we need to “wait” for changing demographics to give us victory. What the Democratic Party needs is something to motivate voters. It needs to become the vehicle for a real political revolution.

In that light, the widely-circulated article “Indivisible: A Practical Guide to Resisting the Trump Agenda” does hit on a couple of important points. The Congressional staffers who drew it up stress the need to organize locally and call for resistance to every part of the Republican’s agenda. They caution against “buying into false promises or accepting partial concessions”.  Yes and Yes! These are critical to any strategy to reverse the losses that Democrats have sustained.

But their prescription to follow the strategy and tactics of the Tea Party are based on both a misunderstanding of the history of that reactionary movement and of the objective conditions we face today.

First, the Tea Party did not arise in an ideological vacuum. Over forty years ago, reactionaries (please don’t call them conservatives, because they are not trying to “conserve” anything) began an ideological assault on the politics of the New Deal, particularly targeting the idea that government should have any role outside of power to protect private property (basically the military and the police). This assault was carried out by a large array of think tanks, media outlets, etc. and by 1980 had successfully altered the political debate so as to lay the groundwork for the extreme reactionaries of the Tea Party (much to the chagrin of many of the old-line Republicans). The rules of the game were stacked in their favor.

No such game-changing ideological work has been done to date for the progressive movement. Despite some beginnings by progressive think tanks and institutions and the popularization of some progressive ideas by mass movements like Occupy, Black Lives Matter and the Sanders campaign, the reactionaries still dominate the conversation. Without breaking this strangle hold on framing the questions which we address, the left will not be able to build a mass movement. The beginnings of any political revolution are in ideology, translated into program and put into place by organization. You don’t start with organization.

Second, we need to remember that the goal of the Tea Party was stop government from functioning, thereby proving that government was incapable of solving problems. Success for the party of “no” did not involve mobilizing support for programs designed to meet the needs of ordinary people. Given our historical structure of checks and balances, it is a lot easier to prevent things from happening than to make them happen. Keeping the government from functioning, becoming the new party of “no” cannot be the strategy for Democrats, it simply plays into the hands of the reactionaries. We need a positive, not a negative, blueprint.

Third, the successes of the Tea Party came at a time when the Republicans were the majority party in both the House and Senate. The Tea Party activist tactics revolved around making sure that moderate Republicans (the few that are left) towed their line. Right now Democrats are not in control of either house in Congress and only in a few states do they have much influence in the state legislatures; they are hardly in a position to block reactionary legislation.

Thus, trying to influence (or annoy) Republicans in Congress is a poor strategy.  Neither Trump nor the Congressional Republicans are about to back away from what they see as a chance to implement their reactionary policies on a grand scale. While it may be possible to sway a few moderate Republicans in battleground districts on a few issues (and we must pursue that whenever we can) as a general strategy it will fail. To recapture the hearts and minds, Democrats must become the party of “Yes, We Can”.

Another problem with the proposed strategy (I’m not sure it even qualifies as a strategy) is its piecemeal approach to policy. The Democrats have played “small ball” for much of the last 40 years, trying to build a coalition here and another one there to make limited gains. An excellent example is the Affordable Care Act. What is needed to mobilize Democratic voters, Independents and even some Republicans. is to merge the populist upsurge we are witnessing with the “big-tent” strategy to create a broad “new deal”.  


For the Democratic Party, it’s time to “tell no lies and claim no easy victories”.

Note: Part 4 will deal with the tasks ahead.

1 comment:

  1. This is a very well reasoned & written essay. Krugman & his ilk are seeking to cast blame & in so doing justify the status quo, ie the Clinton wing, of the Democratic Party. Not only will it not succeed, but it wouldn't move us in the direction we need to move even if it did. This election should never have been close. The Repub establishment was in complete disarray. Desertion of the trump cause was rampant. Only the poorest possible strategy - the strategy of Krugman & his ilk, could have grasped defeat from the jaws of victory & that's exactly what they did.

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