1968 redux? As the Democratic Party establishment consolidates around the soon to be announced candidacy of Joe Biden for 2024, I’m having flashbacks to 1968.
For those of you who are too young to remember, or didn’t learn about this in your high school history class, 1968 was the height of the Vietnam War. An increasingly unpopular President, Lyndon Johnson (“Hey, hey LBJ, how many kids did you kill today”), decided NOT to run, passing the torch to his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, who supported Johnson’s continuing escalation of the war. (Note: He was also a strong supporter of Johnson’s liberal domestic economic agenda, including The War on Poverty)
Humphrey didn’t compete in the Democratic primaries. In fact, the two anti-war candidates, Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy, won overwhelming support in the Democratic primaries. What Humphrey had was the support of the Party establishment and they controlled the nominating convention.
At the 1968 convention in Chicago there were massive antiwar demonstrations, which were met with massive police violence. Ignoring public opinion, the Democratic Party establishment nominated Humphrey, who went on to lose the election in 1968 to Richard Nixon. A disaster for the Party, the nation and the world, although it pales in comparison to the possibility of Trump, DeSantis or any other of the possible Republican candidates winning in 2024.
After 1968, the Democratic Party made some cosmetic changes to its method of choosing Presidential candidates, but the Party establishment has worked to overcome obstacles to the nomination of its preferred candidate. The machinations around changing the order of the Democratic primaries to benefit Biden are one example.
Will history repeat? Some information on Joe Biden’s current support, from Roots Action:
In a recent poll from NBC News, only 7 percent of voters were enthusiastic about a 2024 Joe Biden reelection bid. In an ABC/Washington Post poll released Sunday, 60 percent of Democratic voters said they’d prefer a candidate other than Joe Biden to be the 2024 nominee. Monday’s AP poll found that only 37 percent of Democrats – and only 23 percent of Democrats under the age of 45 – want to see Biden run for president again. A July New York Times poll showed that a whopping 94 percent of Democratic voters under 30 want someone other than Biden as the nominee in 2024. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, just 34 percent of Americans describe Biden as honest and trustworthy, a new low for his Presidency.
It should be noted that Biden, as was true of Humphrey, does particularly poorly among the young. In Biden’s case this should not be surprising given that the party leadership is dominated by the 75 and older crowd, most of whom (Sanders aside) have drawn the wrong lessons from defeats in 1968 and particularly 1972.
As the US and the world face several interrelated
existential crises, aptly dubbed a “polycrisis” (more on that in a future
post), can we afford to hand the tools of government over to the most
reactionary political forces this country has seen since … ? Like the Bourbon
kings in France, has the Democratic Party “learned nothing and forgotten
nothing”?
As an “about to become” octagenarian I am
ReplyDeletetotally on board with the “don’t run Joe” mantra! I find it interesting that Bernie has been very open about supporting a Biden candidacy should he choose to run for re-election (as it appears he will). As a Sanders admirer, it gives me pause!
Of the stage full of Dem hopefuls prior to the previous nomination, Joe Biden was my least favorite choice. To say I was critical & skeptical would have been putting it mildly. Since that time, I have been surprised, amazed & astounded by Biden's performance - in a completely positive way. He has accomplished more of the right kind of things than I would have thought possible, far more than any of those other Dem candidates - Bernie included - could have done. He has demonstrated the benefits of being politically savvy. So what about a movement to dump him then? It strikes me as the perfect Republican strategy! Change horses in mid stream, dilute your support, put your money on an unknown. Yes, Joe may be old & he may stammer & appear to zone out but he knows how to put together a competent team & he knows how to take advice. He may decide not to run but if he wants to continue in office, he'll get my vote.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that this isn't a horse race. What's a stake here is the future of democracy in our country. Our children's future. I don't disparage what Biden has done domestically (although, if you look at some of the major legislation that was passed during the last 2+ years without rose colored glasses, some of it doesn't appear that "rosy"), but there are some important things he didn't do and some pretty bad appointments he has made (how about that Fed chair!).
DeleteAnd his foreign policies with regard to Ukraine and particularly China are dangerous, and saying that I'm being generous.
Yes, he looks good compared to Trump, but is that enough to get him re-elected. The Republicans are not going to let Trump run again (I may hate everything they stand for, but they are not stupid and they will learn from their midterm setbacks), so the Dems are going to have to have all hands on deck to defeat whom ever they end up nominating. And that means younger voters who are the most dissatisfied with Biden.
The Dems not only have to win the White House in 2024, they have a mountain to climb to keep control of the Senate, not to mention regaining control of the House. They need a strong candidate at the top of the ticket, and that's not Joe.